The last two days, I've gone for a run in shorts. I didn't run at the gym. I ran January.  It's amazing.

I almost feel guilty loving it because I know this winter has been especially difficult for the folks at Bogus Basin.  This week's mid-week closure was the first time that had to close in-season in over 40 years.  But looking back at my Facebook "On this Day" memories, I remember how miserable we were at this time last year. Cities were declaring states of emergency, sub-divisions looked like a war zone with uncollected trash piling up and residents struggling to get out of their neighborhoods.  Heck, my friends and I ran the Hot Cocoa Run 5K in the middle of blizzard in snow that was already six inches deep.  Personally, I'm glad that the early predictions for another snowy winter on the valley floor have been wrong...or have they?

A Facebook page called "Treasure Valley Weather HQ" launched days before "Snowpocalypse" hit the weekend of January 7, 2017.  The page's founder, Kody Wilson, and former Channel 2 meteorologist Vin Crosby (who now hosts The Weather Show with Meteorologist Vin Crosby on YouTube) were the only two sources that correctly one of the most dangerous winter weather patterns in the Treasure Valley.  They were right about how bad things were going to get that weekend from horrible road conditions, to trees and carports collapsing and the eventual flooding from snow melt.

Kody's a pretty interesting guy.  He's a Treasure Valley native and spent most of his life in Vale, Oregon. According to his Facebook page, he ended up moving to Colorado to get a Bachelor's in Meteorology after realizing how different forecasts from major news outlets were from what actually happened.  His epiphany was that most outlets like television stations lean toward a more conservative forecast.  Those weather apps on your phone? Kody says they're actually a "climatology forecast" that's made up of an average of data about what weather actually occurred on a specific day over more than fifty years.  The humans managing those apps usually lean conservative too.

Kody's "Treasure Valley Weather HQ" Facebook page is going viral again, thanks to his most recent forecast saying that 8-14" of snow is possible in the Treasure Valley over the next 10 ten days. According to Channel 2, Kody uses the same type of forecast models as the National Weather Service, but wants to be more upfront about the worst case scenario to give residents enough time to prepare ahead of the storm.

He's not saying that the extreme snowfall is a foregone conclusion, but with the conditions he's seeing it is certainly possible for things to shift and end up that way. While, I want to believe he's wrong (mostly because I'd like to keep running outside) he's got a pretty good scoreboard when it comes to nailing the forecast!

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